Taiwan: Defending a Non-Vital U.S. Interest

For both the United States and China, management of Taiwan— claimed by Beijing yet protected for nearly seventy-five years by Washington— has become a dangerous source of tension and a possible casus belli between the two powers. No other potential catalyst of conflict between Beijing and Washington, including the face-off between North and South Korea or China’s maritime territorial and other disputes with its neighbors, involves anything approaching the likelihood and severity of an armed Sino-American conflict over Taiwan. This is because only the Taiwan issue presents such high levels of direct, militarized commitments by the United States and China in the defense of what are viewed as vital and potentially clashing national interests.

For Beijing, the eventual return of the island to sovereign Chinese control (after losing it in a war with imperial Japan at the turn of the twentieth century) is inextricably linked to the fundamental legitimacy of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) regime as the defender of Chinese nationalism. Hence, few if any serious analysts of the Taiwan issue doubt that China would go to war to prevent the island from becoming de jure independent, especially if such a development were to occur with US backing. For the United States, ensuring a peaceful, uncoerced resolution of Taiwan’s fate is widely viewed in policy circles as inextricably linked to Washington’s credibility as a security guarantor and a defender of democracy. Thus, even though Washington pursues a deliberate policy of strategic ambiguity regarding whether and how it might use force if Beijing were to attack Taiwan, few serious observers doubt that the United States would intervene militarily under such a situation, thus posing the likelihood of a war with China. Even Donald Trump, who has expressed less support for the island than other presidents, would very likely respond militarily to a Chinese attack, at the very least in order to avoid what he would doubtless regard as a personal challenge to his self-image as a tough, respected leader.

Such ingrained beliefs and intentions present the possibility of a future severe militarized crisis or armed conflict over Taiwan if Beijing sees Washington as clearly attempting to permanently separate the island from China, or if Washington sees Beijing as clearly preparing to gain control over Taiwan by force. Unfortunately, existing trends in both countries, as well as Taiwan itself, are creating just such highly dangerous perceptions in both capitals.