A Philippine Withdrawal Hardly Marks the End of the South China Sea Clash

The withdrawal of the largest Philippine Coast Guard vessel, the Teresa Magbanua, from the Sabina Shoal in the South China Sea this past weekend demonstrated the success of the Chinese tactic of blockading supplies to the vessel. With its sailors apparently dehydrated and malnourished, Manila decided to pull back its presence on a shoal China claims and by now has established a major presence in. 

Observers have noted parallels with the Scarborough Shoal stand-off in 2012. Back then, a similar attempt by the Philippines to assert its rights with its largest naval warship at the time, the Gregorio del Pilar, led to a weeks-long stand-off with the Chinese coast guard. The outcome was a net gain for China; Manila ultimately withdrew, and Beijing took full control of the shoal. Manila is still sore about the failures of Washington’s back-channel role in the 2012 stand-off, as it was led to believe the Chinese would also withdraw simultaneously. 

Since the recent upsurge in tensions since last year, Manila has resisted seeking direct U.S. assistance in its multiple clashes with China near the Second Thomas Shoal. These include an incident in June involving aggressive Chinese boarding of Philippine craft. In the context of the Sabina Shoal stand-off, Manila did say it would seek U.S. assistance when its troops were hungry and had no supplies. But when crunch time came, U.S. intervention was apparently not requested. 

While China has said it would allow humanitarian supplies to Philippine sailors precariously perched on a rusting ship on the Second Thomas Shoal, no such promises have been made to Manila’s new deployment push at Sabina Shoal. This lowers the threshold for clashes given that the Philippines has promised to replace the Teresa Magbanua with another craft soon.