The Quiet Development Shaking America’s Power

With the stunning comeback of Donald Trump as president, America’s allies are scrambling. Behind their sober messages of congratulation is a palpable anxiety that Washington will soon treat them as mere pawns on the global chessboard. It would be quite a change. Under President Biden’s leadership, the United States — sharpening its rivalry with China and seeking to counter Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — put great store in strengthening its alliances and partnerships.

There’s lots to suggest it was successful. NATO, led by the United States, has rallied vigorously against Russia. Europe now echoes America’s weaponization of trade against China. Japan, by ramping up its military spending, joining sanctions against Russia and fashioning stronger ties with South Korea, has drawn closer. The Philippines, after a period of alienation, has begun to forge a common front against China. And India has remained a close partner. “We’re stronger than ever,” Mr. Biden could plausibly boast at the 75th anniversary of NATO this summer.

But look closer, and another trend quietly emerges. American allies and partners have also been hedging their bets, increasingly seeking out alternative arrangements with countries not in the West’s orbit. This development, strongest in the global south, is driven less by individual leaders than by the structure of the international system. In a world ever more marked by multi-alignment and transactionalism, America can no longer depend on the loyalty of its friends. This is already happening, and it has very little to do with Mr. Trump.

For some years now, two American allies in the developing world — Turkey and Thailand — have pulled away from America, triangulating between it and its rivals. Turkey, a longstanding NATO member on the opposite side of Russia in the Syrian civil war, vigorously condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But it did not join U.S.-led sanctions, instead deepening its trade and energy ties with Moscow and engaging both Russia and Ukraine to forge a grain export deal for global markets that stood until last summer.