An Iran Exit Plan
Wisdom in foreign policy begins with the ability to distinguish problems that can be resolved from problems that can be managed but not fixed.
A host of U.S. presidents had to learn this lesson the hard way. George W. Bush thought overthrowing Saddam Hussein would transform the broader Middle East. Barack Obama thought terminating the reign of Muammar al-Qaddafi would stabilize Libya and accelerate the Arab Spring.
Neither proved correct. Managing and containing these threats would have been far preferable to the damaging knock-on effects that flowed from the failed attempts to eliminate them—effects that continue to plague Europe and the Middle East today.
Now, President Donald Trump has fallen into the same trap, believing that he can end rather than manage and mitigate the challenges posed by Iran. It is already evident, more than three weeks into the joint U.S.-Israeli military operation, that airpower alone will not produce regime change in Iran, despite its effectiveness in eliminating specific Iranian leaders.
