The PKK’s Future: Real Dissolution or Strategic Shift?
In late February 2025, Abdullah Öcalan, the imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), called for the group’s disarmament and dissolution as part of a broader peace initiative with Türkiye, potentially ending a 40-year conflict that claimed approximately 40,000 lives. In response, the PKK declared an immediate ceasefire and expressed willingness to discuss disbanding, provided Öcalan could participate in the process. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have also now reached a deal with the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)-led government in Damascus, agreeing to integrate “all civil and military institutions” into the new Syrian state.
For Türkiye, the distinction between the SDF and the PKK remains minimal. At the same time, Türkiye views Iran as a destabilizing force in the region, suspecting it may leverage Kurdish groups in a proxy war to counter Turkish influence.
QI held a webinar on whether the PKK’s dissolution will materialize, its implications for U.S.-Türkiye relations, the future of Syria, and Türkiye’s ongoing rivalry with Iran for regional dominance. The conversation will feature Gönül Tol, founding director of the Middle East Institute’s Turkey Program and Burcu Ozcelik, senior research fellow for Middle East Security within the International Security department at RUSI. Adam Weinstein, deputy director of the Middle East program at the Quincy moderated the conversation.
Program
Panelists
Gönül Tol
Gönül Tol is the founding director of the Middle East Institute’s Turkey Program and a senior fellow with the Black Sea Program. She is the author of "Erdogan's War: A Strongman's Struggle at Home and in Syria". Tol has taught at George Washington University’s Institute for Middle East Studies and the College of International Security Affairs at the National Defense University. She holds a BA from Middle East Technical University and an MA and PhD from Florida International University.
Burcu Ozcelik
Dr Burcu Ozcelik is a senior research fellow for Middle East Security within the International Security department at RUSI. With over 15 years’ experience in geopolitical risk analysis, security and threat assessments, and strategic advisory in both the public and private sector, Burcu specialises in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, Turkey and the Eastern Mediterranean. Prior to joining RUSI, Burcu worked as an Associate Director at a London-based consultancy firm leading the MENA practice. She previously worked with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
Adam Weinstein
Adam Weinstein is deputy director of the Middle East Program at the Quincy Institute. He previously worked for KPMG’s international trade practice. Adam’s current research focuses on security, trade, and rule of law in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the Middle East. He has conducted extensive research travel in Pakistan, Iraq, and the greater Middle East. He is also a non-resident fellow at Tabadlab, an Islamabad based think tank and advisory firm. Adam served as a U.S. Marine and deployed to Uruzgan Province Afghanistan in 2012.
Steven Simon
Steven Simon is a senior research fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and a distinguished fellow and visiting professor at Dartmouth College. He served as the National Security Council senior director for counterterrorism in the Clinton White House and for the Middle East and North Africa in the Obama White House and in senior positions at the US Department of State. Outside of government, he was a principal and senior advisor to Good Harbor LLC in Abu Dhabi and director of the Middle East office of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Manama.