The Search for a Ceasefire in Ukraine
Whatever the outcome of the planned Ukrainian counter-offensive, calls for a ceasefire in Ukraine are likely to increase later this year. This will be true whether the result is a Ukrainian breakthrough opening the way to partial Russian withdrawal, a Russian counter-attack threatening the loss of more Ukrainian territory, or a continued stalemate. Given the official positions adopted by both Russia and Ukraine, the diplomatic path to a ceasefire will be very difficult. The United States will have to take the lead, since full U.S. engagement and commitment will be necessary both to achieve and to maintain a ceasefire, as well as to drive subsequent negotiations for a final peace settlement. However, the Biden administration will also need help from other international actors — China first among them. This however will require an acceptance of a long-term Chinese role in Europe that the Washington establishment has been very unwilling to contemplate. To discuss these issues and mark the publication of Eurasia Program Director Anatol Lieven’s policy brief, “Paths to a Ceasefire in Ukraine,” the Quincy Institute is convening a panel featuring Lieven; Thomas Graham, distinguished fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations; Miriam Pemberton, associate fellow at the Institute for Policy Studies; and Jeffrey Sachs, director of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University. The Quincy Institute’s George Beebe will moderate.
Program
Panelists
Thomas Graham
Thomas Graham is a distinguished fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. He is a cofounder of the Russian, East European, and Eurasian studies program at Yale University and sits on its faculty steering committee. He is also a research fellow at the MacMillan Center at Yale. He has been a lecturer in global affairs and political science since 2011, teaching courses on U.S.-Russian relations and Russian foreign policy, as well as cybersecurity and counterterrorism. Graham was special assistant to the president and senior director for Russia on the National Security Council staff from 2004 to 2007, during which he managed a White House-Kremlin strategic dialogue. He was director for Russian affairs on the staff from 2002 to 2004.
Miriam Pemberton
Miriam Pemberton is an Associate Fellow at the Institute for Policy Studies, with a principal focus on U.S. spending priorities and the U.S. military economy. With Lawrence Korb, she led the task force that produced the annual "Unified Security Budget of the United States" (2004-2012.) With William Hartung she co-edited Lessons From Iraq: Avoiding the Next War (Paradigm, 2008). This year she has published Six Stops on the National Security Tour: Rethinking Warfare Economies (Routledge). She holds a Ph.D. from the University of Michigan.
Anatol Lieven
Anatol Lieven is director of the Eurasia Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. He was formerly a professor at Georgetown University in Qatar and in the War Studies Department of King’s College London. Lieven worked as a British journalist in South Asia, the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, and is author of several books on Russia and its neighbors including Ukraine and Russia: A Fraternal Rivalry (199). His most recent book is Climate Change and the Nation State (2021). He holds a BA and PhD from Cambridge University in England.
Jeffrey Sachs
Professor Jeffrey Sachs is director of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University and President of the United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network. He is the author of numerous leading books on international development, poverty eradication, and economic reform. He has been closely involved in the search for peace in Ukraine, and in June 2022 chaired an international conference on this question at the Pontifical Academy of Sciences in the Vatican.
George Beebe (Moderator)
George Beebe is Director of Grand Strategy at the Quincy Institute. He spent more than two decades in government as an intelligence analyst, diplomat, and policy advisor, including as director of the CIA’s Russia analysis and as a staff advisor on Russia matters to Vice President Cheney. His book, The Russia Trap: How Our Shadow War with Russia Could Spiral into Nuclear Catastrophe (2019), warned how the United States and Russia could stumble into a dangerous military confrontation.