What if Iran Gets the Bomb?
The Biden administration, along with outside experts, assesses that Iran could build a nuclear weapon very quickly — if it chose to do so. Whether and under what conditions Iran would cross the line are unknown. Equally unclear is how Tehran would integrate a nuclear weapons capability into its overall security strategy. What would Iran’s leaders believe nuclear weapons would do for them? And how would they wield them? These uncertainties are compounded by unknowns regarding the reactions of regional states, especially Israel and Saudi Arabia, and powerful global players, including the United States. At a moment when Iran and Israel have attacked each other’s territory with ballistic missiles, these questions are more than just thought exercises. And the implications go beyond the Middle East as states under the shadow of perceived aggressors contemplate building nuclear weapons themselves. Their calculations will be shaped by an Iranian decision to build a bomb — or not to build one — and the international response to it.
The Quincy Institute assembled a panel of distinguished experts to begin a discussion of these issues, as Republican and Democratic presidential contenders begin to puzzle through their own positions toward this contingency. It will feature Steven Miller, director of the International Security Program at the Harvard Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Ellen Laipson, director of the Master’s in International Security degree program at George Mason University, Barbara Slavin, distinguished fellow at the Stimson Center, and Gary Samore, professor of the practice in politics at Brandeis University. Steven Simon, senior research fellow at the Quincy Institute, moderated.
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Panelists
Steven Miller
Steven E. Miller is director of the International Security Program at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School. He is Editor-in-Chief of the journal International Security and coeditor of the International Security Program’s book series, Belfer Center Studies in International Security. He is editor or coeditor of more than two dozen books, including "Going Nuclear: Nuclear Proliferation and International Security in the 21st Century" (2010) and "Contending with Terrorism: Roots, Strategies, and Responses" (2010).
Ellen Laipson
Ellen Laipson is the director of the Master's in International Security degree program at the Center for Security Policy Studies in the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University. She joined Mason after a distinguished 25-year career in government — including as Vice Chair of the National Intelligence Council (NIC) from 1997-2002 — and as president and CEO of the Stimson Center (2002-15). She serves on the Advisory Councils of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and Georgetown University’s Institute for the Study of Diplomacy.
Barbara Slavin
Barbara Slavin is a distinguished fellow at the Stimson Center in Washington and a lecturer in international affairs at George Washington University. Prior to joining Stimson, she founded and directed the Future of Iran Initiative at the Atlantic Council and led a bi-partisan task force on Iran. The author of "Bitter Friends, Bosom Enemies: Iran, the US and the Twisted Path to Confrontation" (2007), she is a regular commentator on US foreign policy and Iran on NPR, PBS and C-Span.
Gary Samore
Gary Samore is the Crown Family Director of the Crown Center for Middle East Studies and Professor of the Practice in Politics at Brandeis University. He previously served as President Barack Obama's White House Coordinator for Arms Control and Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) and President Bill Clinton's Senior Director for Non-proliferation and Export Controls. He is also a senior fellow in the Project on Managing the Atom at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University.
Steven Simon
Steven Simon is a senior research fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and a distinguished fellow and visiting professor at Dartmouth College. He served as the National Security Council senior director for counterterrorism in the Clinton White House and for the Middle East and North Africa in the Obama White House and in senior positions at the US Department of State. Simon is the author of "Grand Delusion: The Rise and Fall of American Ambition in the Middle East" (Penguin/Random House, 2023).