What Is the Future of the Axis of Resistance?
The so-called Axis of Resistance, which includes Hezbollah, Iran-aligned militias in Iraq, Assad-led Syria, the Houthis, Hamas, and others, has faced some of the most significant setbacks in its history. Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated by Israel in Tehran, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and most of the senior leadership were killed by Israel, and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who held considerable influence, was killed in Gaza. It remains unclear if Israel will target IRGC commanders within Iran as part of its promised retaliation for an Iranian ballistic missile attack, which followed strikes on Axis leaders.
Political scientists have long debated the long-term effectiveness of leadership decapitation in terrorist groups, with mixed results. What lies ahead for the Axis of Resistance? Can it recover from the loss of high-profile leaders who had strong personal followings? Will these groups face internal conflict or leadership struggles? Or will they demonstrate resilience? What is Israel’s ultimate objective, if any, in targeting the Axis?
The Quincy Institute held a conversation featuring Steven Simon, senior research fellow at the Quincy Institute, Nir Rosen, writer, journalist, and filmmaker, and Narges Bajoghli, assistant professor of Middle East Studies at the Johns Hopkins-SAIS. Adam Weinstein, deputy director of the Middle East program at the Quincy Institute, moderated the discussion.
Program
Topics
Panelists
Steven Simon
Steven Simon is a senior research fellow at the Quincy Institute and distinguished fellow and visiting professor at Dartmouth College. Prior to this, he was Robert E. Wilhelm Fellow at the MIT Center for International Studies and Executive Director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies for the U.S. and Middle East. From 2011 to 2012 he served on the National Security Council staff as senior director for Middle Eastern and North African affairs. He also worked on the NSC staff 1994 – 1999 on counterterrorism and Middle East security policy. His most recent book, "Grand Delusion: The Rise and Fall of American Ambition in the Middle East", was published in 2023.
Narges Bajoghli
Narges Bajoghli is an assistant professor of Middle East Studies at the Johns Hopkins-SAIS, and an award-winning anthropologist, scholar, and filmmaker. Her book, "Iran Reframed: Anxieties of Power in the Islamic Republic", received the 2020 Margaret Mead Award, 2020 Choice Award for Outstanding Academic Title, and the 2021 Silver Medal in Independent Publisher Book Awards. She also directed the documentary "The Skin That Burns.” Bajoghli has written for The New York Times, The New York Times Magazine, Foreign Affairs, The Guardian, Foreign Policy, and Jacobin. She has appeared as a commentator on CNN, Democracy Now!, NPR, BBC WorldService, BBC NewsHour, PBS NewsHour, and in Spanish on radio across Latin America.
Nir Rosen
"Nir Rosen is a writer, researcher, film maker and consultant to humanitarian organizations and has worked in the Middle East since 2003. Between 2003 and 2011, he spent most of his time in Iraq and Lebanon, and since 2011, he has divided his time between Syria, Iraq and Lebanon. Nir has also worked in Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, Congo, Egypt, Palestine, Jordan, Yemen, Turkey, Afghanistan, Pakistan, the former Yugoslavia, Mexico and elsewhere. He has authored two books: "The Triumph of the Martyrs: A Reporter's Journey into Occupied Iraq"(Potomac Books, 2008)); and "Aftermath: Following the Bloodshed of America's Wars in the Muslim World" (Nation Books, 2010). Nir has also worked on several documentary films about Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria, and filmed two documentaries in Iraq.
Adam Weinstein
Adam Weinstein is deputy director of the Middle East program at the Quincy Institute, whose current research focuses on security and rule of law in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iraq. He is also a non-resident fellow at Tadblab, a think tank and advisory firm based in Islamabad, and regularly travels throughout Pakistan. Before coming to Quincy Institute, he worked for KPMG’s international trade practice and assisted multinational clients in navigating Asia’s changing trade landscape, incorporating human rights due diligence into supply chains, managing sanctions risk, and utilizing free trade agreements. Adam’s analysis has been featured in the Washington Post, Guardian, Foreign Policy, War on the Rocks, Lawfare, and The National Interest.