The Ukraine Peace Process Is Moving Quite Fast
The Ukraine peace process is now moving as fast as can reasonably be expected. Only two months ago, all sides were still locked in positions that gave no chance at all of progress. Russia was demanding complete Ukrainian withdrawal from all the four provinces it claims to have annexed, and a bar on all Western arms supplies to Ukraine—things that neither Ukraine nor Western governments could possibly accept.
The Trump administration and the Kyiv and European governments were demanding a prior ceasefire before beginning talks on an agreement—something that Moscow has made clear for months that it would not accept, since Russian advances on the ground are by far the most important leverage that Russia can bring to bear in talks (just as the Ukrainians rejected a ceasefire when they thought they were winning).
Of course, major obstacles remain. Of these, the greatest from Ukraine’s point of view is probably the continued Russian demand for Ukrainian military withdrawal from the approximately 30 percent of Donetsk region that Ukraine still holds. It would be appallingly difficult for any Ukrainian government to agree voluntarily to withdraw from this land, given the number of Ukrainian lives sacrificed to hold it, and the effort put into fortifying the Ukrainian front line. It seems plausible that a Ukrainian government that agreed to this would be in real danger of being overthrown—unless the Ukrainian army had already been defeated and was in the process of losing the region anyway.
It is also necessary to point out—since most Western reporting and analysis have obscured this—that this is one of the few issues in dispute which is actually up to Ukraine to decide. NATO membership, Western security “guarantees” for Ukraine and Western arms supplies for Ukraine are all issues for the US and European governments to decide on. Ukraine can ask them to provide these; it cannot decide for them or compel them to do so.
