The Search for a Ceasefire in Ukraine
Whatever the outcome of the planned Ukrainian counter-offensive, calls for a ceasefire in Ukraine are likely to increase later this year. This will be true whether the result is a Ukrainian breakthrough opening the way to partial Russian withdrawal, a Russian counter-attack threatening the loss of more Ukrainian territory, or a continued stalemate.
Given the official positions adopted by both Russia and Ukraine, the diplomatic path to a ceasefire will be very difficult. The United States will have to take the lead, since full U.S. engagement and commitment will be necessary both to achieve and to maintain a ceasefire, as well as to drive subsequent negotiations for a final peace settlement. However, the Biden administration will also need help from other international actors — China first among them. This however will require an acceptance of a long-term Chinese role in Europe that the Washington establishment has been very unwilling to contemplate.
To discuss these issues and mark the publication of Eurasia Program Director Anatol Lieven’s policy brief, “Paths to a Ceasefire in Ukraine,” the Quincy Institute is convening a panel featuring Lieven; Thomas Graham, distinguished fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations; Miriam Pemberton, associate fellow at the Institute for Policy Studies; and Jeffrey Sachs, director of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University. The Quincy Institute’s George Beebe will moderate.