The War-Crisis Nexus in Europe: Germany, Europe and the War in Ukraine
The collapse of Germany’s governing coalition, the unpopularity of all three governing parties and the rise of the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) is symptomatic of the beleaguered standing of many mainstream parties in Europe and the strains affecting the EU as a whole. A recently published Quincy brief, The Risks to Germany and Europe of a Prolonged War in Ukraine, argues that the Ukraine War, the shut-off of Russian gas supplies, and public concerns about the dangers to Germany have contributed greatly to Germany’s political and fiscal crisis, and that pursuing an unambiguous victory for Ukraine against Russia carries severe risks for the stability and prosperity of Europe as a whole.
These risks could increase radically if the Trump administration were to throw responsibility for Ukraine onto the shoulders of the Europeans without first having achieved a peace settlement there. Fiscal constraints faced by Europe’s NATO members create an unavoidable trade-off between providing arms and equipment to Ukraine, a determined drive by European NATO members to assume more responsibility for their own territorial defense, and maintaining Europe’s endangered health and social welfare systems.
To discuss these issues and the future of Germany and the EU, the Quincy Institute held a panel of leading experts on contemporary Europe: Dr. Matthias Matthijs, Dean Acheson chair at SAIS, and Molly O’Neal, former Foreign Service officer and Quincy Institute non-resident fellow. Anatol Lieven, director of the Eurasia program at the Quincy Institute, moderated.
Program
Panelists
Matthias Matthijs
Dr. Matthias Matthijs holds the Dean Acheson chair at SAIS and is associate professor of international political economy at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) and a Senior Fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). He is co-editor of the book "The Future of the Euro"(2015). His research focuses on the politics of economic crises, the role of economic ideas in economic policymaking, and the politics of regional integration.
Molly O'Neal
Molly O’Neal is a Quincy Institute non-resident fellow and former Foreign Service officer. She served in the U.S. embassies in Moscow, Tbilisi, Tashkent and Baku, on State’s Policy Planning Staff and as Political Counselor at the European Bank for Reconstruction Development. She holds a PhD from Johns Hopkins SAIS. Her areas of research and publication are American Foreign Policy, International Political Economy and European-Eurasian Area Studies. O'Neal has taught at American University, Baylor University, University of Texas at Austin, Collegium Civitas (Warsaw) and Technical University Dresden.
Anatol Lieven
Dr. Anatol Lieven is the director of the Eurasia Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. He was formerly a professor at Georgetown University in Qatar and in the War Studies Department of King’s College London. From 1985 to 1998, Lieven worked as a journalist in South Asia, the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe and covered the wars in Afghanistan, Chechnya and the southern Caucasus. Lieven is the author of several books, including "Chechnya: Tombstone of Russian Power?" and "Ukraine and Russia: A Fraternal Rivalry."