Nasrallah Assassinated: What Happens Next?

Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah – together with scores of civilians rarely mentioned in Western media – is a major tactical success for the Netanyahu government in Israel. After securing few, if any, strategic wins in Gaza over several months, all the while landing itself at the International Court of Justice on genocide charges and mobilizing global public opinion decisively against it, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has scored several points with a single blow: Hezbollah is severely degraded, Iran is on the defensive, the United States is closer to getting dragged into a regional war all the while US-Iran diplomacy and a Palestinian state are ever more distant. 

Here are four key questions and answers that will determine where things go from here.

1. Is Hezbollah finished?

Hezbollah has suffered several devastating blows, but it is not finished. Not only has almost the entire echelon of senior commanders been killed, but perhaps more importantly, its communications system has been cracked, and several informants working for Israel remain in the organization. This makes it very difficult for Hezbollah to regroup and bounce back. This is reminiscent of the situation in 2006 when Hezbollah cracked Israel’s secret communications – a key factor that explains Hezbollah’s de facto victory in that war. 

However, taking out the leadership of an organization does not necessarily kill the movement that gave birth to the organization in the first place. Moreover, Hezbollah’s army of 40,000 or so fighters remains intact. Israel is now blockading Lebanon and preventing Hezbollah from receiving support from Iran through Syria. The move appears to be in preparation for an Israeli land invasion of Lebanon to do to Hezbollah and southern Lebanon what Israel has already done to Gaza and Hamas. That may prove effective in further degrading Hezbollah – or effective in turning Israel’s tactical victory into a strategic defeat.