Israel’s ‘Mission Accomplished’ Moment in the Middle East

On May 1, 2003, U.S. President George W. Bush donned a cool-looking flight suit, climbed into an S-3 Viking aircraft, and landed aboard the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln. Standing beneath a banner reading “Mission Accomplished,” he announced the end of major combat operations in Iraq. “The United States and our allies have prevailed,” he declared proudly, as his approval ratings shot skyward and the neoconservatives who had engineered the war congratulated themselves on their boldness and wisdom. Conditions in Iraq soon deteriorated, however, and his decision to invade is now universally seen as a huge strategic blunder.

I was reminded of that incident as I watched Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his supporters celebrate Israel’s latest pummeling of Lebanon, culminating (but not ending) with the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah along with many of the militant group’s top leaders. Over the past year, Netanyahu has defied his own defense minister, his legion of domestic opponents, the families of the Israeli hostages still held by Hamas, and the Biden administration as he relentlessly extended and expanded the war that began with Hamas’s assault on Israel nearly one year ago. The country once touted as the “start-up nation” has become the “blow-things-up nation,” and Netanyahu was quick to remind Israel’s opponents that none lay beyond its reach. Given the damage that Israel’s armed forces and intelligence services have inflicted on its various adversaries (killing tens of thousands of civilians in the process), it’s not surprising that Netanyahu was taking a victory lap. Just as Bush did.

There is no question that Israel’s actions over the past several weeks have been a stunning tactical achievement. Israeli intelligence exploited superior signals intelligence and cracks in Hezbollah’s organizational structure, plus some baffling mistakes by its top leaders, and successfully pulled off a complicated and audacious plan to booby-trap the pagers and walkie-talkies that Hezbollah used to communicate. As they have in Gaza, the Israel Defense Forces have used the advanced weaponry provided by Uncle Sam to kill Nasrallah, inflict massive damage throughout Lebanon, and partially degrade Hezbollah’s rocket and missile capabilities. The Israeli Air Force has followed up by striking the Houthis in Yemen, Israeli ground forces are now entering southern Lebanon, and Iran is undoubtedly going to face Israeli retaliation for its recent missile attacks. Netanyahu and his far-right ministers have also used the war (and America’s supine response to it) to ramp up violence and land seizures in the occupied West Bank, as part of their long-term campaign to create a “Greater Israel.”

What’s to stop Netanyahu from running the table and permanently shifting the regional balance of power in Israel’s favor? Tactical achievements do not guarantee strategic success, but one could argue that if you can accomplish enough of them, you might alter the strategic environment in significant and lasting ways. That’s what Netanyahu is aiming for, but there are good reasons to doubt he will succeed.