Trump’s Narrow Iran Window Is Closing
Punishing Iran was not on Donald Trump’s mind when he entered the White House in January. Rather, he had gone out of his way to declare his desire for a deal by avoiding insulting rhetoric, disavowing regime change and declaring nuclear weapons as his only red line. Similar signals came from Iran. Direct talks with Trump was Tehran’s new line. Yet this unique window of opportunity is closing fast, mainly because Trump isn’t paying attention. Iran policy is once again falling into the hands of the neocons who sabotaged Trump’s hope to reach a deal with Iran during his first term—with war lurking around the corner.
As I wrote in this magazine in August of last year, despite his bombastic rhetoric and military threats, Trump genuinely aimed for a new deal with Iran. But he was given disingenuously bad advice by Iran hawks such as Mike Pompeo and John Bolton who wanted to drive matters toward war. The neocons deceived Trump into thinking that ramping up sanctions would break Iran and force it to capitulate to American demands.
To Trump, this sounded reasonable. He wanted a deal, and squeezing Iran before the negotiations made perfect sense. Maximalist demands were just part of the game, and Tehran would surely understand this. But Pompeo and Bolton knew all along—as did anyone who understood the dynamics in Iran and the strategic culture of the clerical government—that demanding Iran’s capitulation combined with suffocating sanctions was the perfect strategy if the goal was war, not talks.
Trump’s rhetoric on Iran in 2024 was strikingly different. Gone were the hints of regime change, maximalist demands, and petty insults. Instead, he focused on his desire for a deal and peace. His vice presidential candidate, J.D. Vance, made a strategic case against war with Iran, stating on The Tim Dillon Show that “our interest is very much in not going to war with Iran,” and that U.S. and Israeli interests on Iran are distinct. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could not have been pleased.