Ukraine Cannot Afford Europe’s Delusions of Victory

October 23, 2026

In recent days, both Russia and Ukraine have expressed support for resuming negotiations over a prospective peace deal. While limited in detail, these are promising signals. But this can only be true if Brussels and Kyiv are prepared to make a joint offer based on reasonable terms. That might encourage Russia to abandon its unreasonable terms. One reason for Moscow’s intransigence is the belief that European governments are not interested in a peace settlement and will do everything possible to block one.

For a long time, Western advocates of indefinite war supported themselves with myths about Ukrainian victory. That is no longer possible. As Ukrainian opposition MP Oleksiy Honcharenko has stated, his country is not only “losing the war”, but does not even have the funds “to operate the country”.

Russia’s air campaign against Ukraine’s energy and transport infrastructure is not only devastating domestic industry, but also undermining whatever chance Ukraine may have of eventually joining the European Union — which Moscow has agreed to in principle.

But there are also the financial costs for European countries to consider. The World Bank estimates the cost of Ukrainian reconstruction at $588 billion. If the war continues, by next spring it will be even more. Given acute and growing budgetary constraints and public discontent, can European countries really guarantee that they will come up with sums like this? This is less likely when the favorite to win the French presidential elections next summer, Marine Le Pen, has already declared that if elected, she will end France’s contribution.

Full piece in UnHerd