The Murky Meaning of Ukraine’s Kursk Offensive

Is Ukraine’s surprise counteroffensive into Russia a critical turning point in the war, a meaningless sideshow, or a strategic misstep on Kyiv’s part? It has been mostly a success in the short term, but it’s the medium to long term that matters. Does it have broader implications for Western policy toward Russia in general and the war in Ukraine in particular?

The fortunes of war have shifted back and forth several times since Russia invaded in February 2022, and no outside observer has gotten everything right. For this reason, a certain amount of humility is in order. As with most wars, it is impossible to know exactly where each side’s breaking point might be, in terms of either capabilities or resolve, and it’s hard to predict how third parties will react to new developments. That said, I see little reason to think Ukraine’s incursion into the Kursk region will have a significant positive impact on its fortunes.

To be sure, the offensive has already brought Kyiv some obvious benefits. It has given Ukrainian morale a much-needed boost and helped counter concerns that Kyiv was trapped in a war of attrition against a larger adversary that it could neither defeat nor outlast. It put the war back on the front pages and strengthened voices calling for increased Western support. It exposed serious flaws in Russian intelligence and readiness and may have embarrassed Russian President Vladimir Putin, although there’s no sign that the incursion has reduced his resolve or slowed Russian advances in the Donbas.

It’s heartening to see Ukraine enjoy some battlefield successes, but this operation is unlikely to affect the outcome of the war. On the upside, the attack showed admirable initiative on Ukraine’s part and an impressive level of operational secrecy, which is why the invading force faced an inadequate number of poorly trained Russian defenders. In some ways the attack resembled the successful Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv in the fall of 2022, which also achieved tactical surprise and faced outnumbered and inexperienced Russian troops.