Three Conditions for a U.S.-Backed Peace Agreement in Ukraine

President Zelensky’s latest suggestions for how to end the fighting in Ukraine are not yet the basis for a peace settlement, but they contain some hopeful pointers towards one. They should form the starting point of the incoming Trump administration’s negotiations with both Moscow and Kyiv.

Two points in particular are fundamental. The first is Zelensky’s acknowledgement that the areas of Ukraine now held by Russia will remain under Russia’s de facto control. There will be no Ukrainian or Western legal recognition of Russian annexations, but the issue will be left for future negotiation.

According to members of the Russian establishment with whom I have spoken, the Russian government itself does not expect this, as they know that Russia’s essential partners in the Brics will also never formally recognise Russian sovereignty. Rather, Moscow hopes for a situation like that of Cyprus, where talks on reunification have dragged on for half a century until the issue has been forgotten.

Equally important is Zelensky’s recognition that while his government strongly wishes for Nato membership or a “Nato umbrella” for the 80% of Ukraine not occupied by Russia, “nobody has offered this”. Given Trump’s America First ideology, it is exceptionally unlikely that he will ever do so. The acceptance of a new Nato member also requires the unanimous consent of existing members. Hungary will certainly veto; Turkey probably; and due to internal political crises, the future policies of France and Germany are highly unclear.